HSBC Global Trade Pulse Survey

Companies expect costs to escalate further in both the short-term (73%) and the long-term (72%). Businesses also expect an average decline in revenues of 18% due to supply chain delays. Over half of respondents (51%) rank rising costs as the number one concern for supply chain strategies and 85% of corporates have revised or plan to revise their pricing strategy upwards to reflect higher costs or market changes.

Over three quarters of corporates (78%) are having to rethink their long-term business model. If tariff instability continues over the next two years, 43% of companies will rethink their international expansion strategy and 39% will shift their focus to domestic or regional markets.

Despite these headwinds, optimism about expanding global trade is strong. Nearly 9 in 10 businesses (89%) are confident in their ability to grow international trade over the next two years within the confines of a more stable market. Businesses are also reconfiguring their supply chains and rethinking how and where they operate. Most are taking action or planning to carry out nearshoring (moving production closer to key customer markets, 83%) and reshoring (bringing production back to their home country, 77%).

Businesses most likely to initiate nearshoring, a practice gaining most traction by globally exposed and production-centric sectors, are those in Technology, Media and Telecoms (87% have done so or plan to). Businesses most likely to have experienced an increase in costs to date are those in Consumer (70%), followed by Healthcare (69%), and TMT (69%).

Encouragingly, many respondents see trade pressure as a catalyst for innovation, with 77% saying it has encouraged them to evolve and seek new opportunities. 58% have already adopted new technologies or platforms, 56% have improved internal efficiency or cost structures, and 51% have since launched new products or services.

The survey points to the emergence of new trade corridors in some of the markets surveyed and we are seeing global businesses strengthening their relationships with key markets outside their borders. Malaysia (61%) and Vietnam (52%) are expanding their relationships with China; India (54%) and the United States (51%) with Europe, and the United Kingdom (46%) and India (62%) with the United States. In some markets, optimism about international trade growth endures, led by India (96%) and the United Arab Emirates (94%).

The HSBC Global ‘Pulse’ Survey interviewed 5,750 businesses from 13 markets with international operations and a turnover of between US$50m - US$2billion. The markets included were: Bangladesh, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Mainland China, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, and Vietnam, and the research was conducted between April 30th and May 12th, 2025.

HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of HSBC, is headquartered in London. HSBC serves customers worldwide from offices in 58 countries and territories. With assets of US$3,054bn on 31 March 2025, HSBC is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organisations.